13 Mar No point swimming against the tide!

Having had some pretty poor tennis to bet on the last few days, no sooner do some matches worth a dabble on occur that my internet connection decides to screw up!

Not one to swim against the tide, I'm going to take a break. Indian Wells has been a real non-event, both for watching and betting, and Miami for the next fortnight is likely to be the same. So I'm off for the rest of March. May or may not resume blogging after Miami, in the meantime good luck to everyone.

12 March How to bet on Cheltenham

Didn't have any bets yesterday - just didn't fancy anything either pre-match or in running. Been a poor last couple of days in Indian Wells - the matchups just haven't happened. A bit of a surprise how easily the rejuvenated Petrova brushed aside Goerges, and Flipper had a great chance of beating the hateful Azarenka but just couldn't maintain her standard. That's a fine tan line on Woz's chest!

It's the first day of Cheltenham today. These are the most efficient markets of the year and I never bother to do any research myself as there's thousands of people out there beavering away and they'll get the markets right. I think it's rare for a complete rag to win so I just dutch a few of the market leaders to try and get an even money shot. For example, here's the first race today, with 3 market leaders, the fav and 2 CD winners dutched for roughly evens. Pretty easy to do, and no hours of dull research involved.

Doesn't always work, but if it did then it wouldn't be betting.

10 Mar

Rubbish day yesterday. Most of the WTA matches were one-sided with very short odds favs, and the couple of more interesting ones weren't streamed. So not much action there. I also managed to lay the first ever draw in history between Millwall and Blackburn Rovers, though thankfully recouped by laying Chelsea. Then lost some money on the NBA - stupid ill-disciplined betting due to boredom, the sort of nonsense I'm supposed to be trying to cut out by blogging. Actually, that's maybe a bit harsh - probably more a case of overstaking a bit, and I wouldn't be moaning if they'd won!

The matches tonight look a bit more attractive for betting, so here's hoping.

9 Mar

Bit of a lull in proceedings mid-session, and I've decided to stop for the day as the only two bets left that I fancy are really silly ones. So best stop before wasting any money. I will be watching and hoping against hope that Dani can roll back the years and send the hateful Azarenka and Redfoo packing.

Wicky did me a good turn, but the rest was all very uncertain stuff. There was a mid-game injury in the Maka vs Mug match and I had to get rid of all the Mug green and cover the Maka red, as there was no way of knowing who was injured - the market didn't move, so either there were no courtsiders or it wasn't that serious an injury. Sod's Law, Mug went on to win.

Betfair crashed midafternoon for an hour, just as the EPL  was kicking off. Not the first time this has happened, but why they can't sort it out lord alone knows. But it actually did me a favour, as I'd had a small bet on QPR which I would've gone all red when they went 0-1 down. As it was, they went 2-1 up while Betfair was still down!

8 Mar

Had a couple of wins on Bundesliga 2, but after 2 crap bets on the tennis I could feel my head was messed up, so I stopped for the night. Hopefully get going again tonight.

7 March RIP Christina Edkins

There was an horrific murder of a 16 yr old girl yesterday in Birmingham as she was going to school on the bus. Apparently just a random act. The poor girl had a twitter account and reading through the tweets did my head in - she wasn't just another name in the headlines, it somehow made it personal. After that sport, tennis, betting on tennis all seemed a bit inconsequential.

6 March

Back in the fray again, after a layoff last week.

It's strange these days not to have any live tv or streaming of the tennis, yet this is the case with the first week of Indian Wells, and of Miami in 2 weeks time. One presumes it's the legacy of the contract between the tennis bodies and the USA tv networks probably dating back a few years before the increase in the use of internet streaming for coverage, and it must be highly embarrassing to the tennis organisers for two of the biggest tournaments of the year to have no coverage at all for the first few days.

So it was scoreboards only, and I have to say the appeal of betting and following tennis solely by scoreboard has waned. Odd to think this was the main way it worked not that long ago!

Regardless, some nice winners were landed. Plus a bet on the NBA, which was something to watch while following the scoreboards.

2 Mar

In case anyone was wondering, I decided to shut up shop last Tuesday. Both Florianopolis and KL were heavily rain-affected, and if you get involved in a rain-affected match you either have to unwind, possibly (usually) at poor odds, or leave the money tied up until the match resumes. Both options rather unpalatable. Also there was no streaming from Acapulco. So I decided to leave it until Indian Wells starts next week, and probably wait till the TV coverage of that starts next Saturday.

Very sad about the lack of coverage of Acapulco. Strange given there's cameras already there as the ATP event is being covered. Acapulco used to have good coverage up to and including 2010, but been nothing since then. I wonder if there's local coverage but no one can be bothered to stream it.

An acceptable tank?

There's been a lot of fuss over the years about match fixing, tanking, lack of best effort and the like in tennis. The 2008 report issued in the aftermath of the infamous Davydenko match is required reading for all tennis punters (see link in Useful Links section). It notes, quite rightly, that there are shades of grey. As punters we need to be aware that circumstances exist which means a player may not be at her best, or may not be about to give of her best. That's all part of the fun.

There is one sort of tank that I've come to believe warrants careful consideration among the betting community, and that is the lucky loser tank in qualifiers. It isn't mentioned in the 2008 report because markets were not offered on qualies at that time - it's only within the last year or two that markets have been offered.

If someone in the main draw withdraws then a so-called lucky loser is given the slot, and this is allocated based on the qualies ranking. So it is possible for a player in qualies to start a match knowing there's no need for her to win, as she already has a lucky loser spot in the main draw. This information is generally not available to anyone other than those at the tournament.

One of these occurred last night in Acapulco. Fichmann was the No1 seed for qualies and was odds on to beat Castano. She lost 6-1 6-2 in under an hour. Then the tournament updates the order of play and we see Fichmann down to play Bertens in an hour's time as a Lucky Loser. Pity the punters who backed Fichmann.

Dead rubber markets occur in many sports, but the major difference is the availability of information to punters before the event. A dead rubber in, say, a World Cup Group match is known to all, and people can decide whether to risk betting or not. But whether a tennis player in qualies has already got a lucky loser spot in the main draw, and hence does not need to win, is usually known only to very few at the tournament.

I believe there's a case to be made that there should not be markets for qualies for WTA tournaments. Slams are different, as lucky loser spots are allocated by ballot. Caveat emptor seems a thin defence in this case, as the lucky loser scenario isn't that well known, though once bitten by it I doubt anyone will fall in the same trap again, and give final round qualies involving the top seeds a wide berth.

25 Feb

With the strong possibility of non-stop tennis overnight and into tomorrow (weather permitting) it's not immediately obvious when one day ends and another begins. There is a bit of a pause in proceedings at the moment thanks to the second thunderstorm of the day wiping out Florianopolis, though it's only 7.30pm local there and they might get back on, and there's no liquidity for the Acapulco qualies. So I thought I'd call this the end of 25 Feb. Not too bad a day, though a bit of a shocker opposing Garcia.

24 Feb

I do like Petra Martic. Not only is she easy on the eye but she plays an attractive style of tennis. So I was sad to see she lost in qualies in Florianopolis today. It was her first match since Melbourne, and I believe she's had knee surgery since then too. Lets hope things are fine for Indian Wells in 10 days time. (It's still possible she'll get a lucky loser spot in Brasil).

I'm not entirely sure how I won so much on JJ today, looks like overstaking to me, as I shouldn't've managed to get that much at the odds on offer. It must've been a trade or two in running as well, but since it was pretty much a 1.01 train I'm not quite sure how that works either. Oh well.

Was gobsmacked to see Jana Cepelova 1.39 vs a local waitress in Florianopolis and piled in. It was quite a close first set, including the match being halted by a hole in the court and it had to be moved to another one. How embarrassing for the organisers.

( The derogatory phrase local waitress hails from the Betfair tennis forum, where it's applied to any low-ranked local girl who is only in the draw via a wildcard. By that definition there's lots of local Brit waitresses playing in Wimbledon every year!)

Not much going on in Acapulco or KL later so going for a good night's sleep in anticipation of a couple of days of round-the-clock WTA.

23 Feb

A quiet day today, with only 4 matches if you exclude qualies for next week - Betfair put the markets up so late there was no liquidity at all for them so decided to give them a miss. Petra the pusher slayer beat queen pusher, but not a massive beatdown thanks to going walkies 2nd set and Errani trying to change her game up at the same time. There's the final in Memphis in a bit - there might even be a stream! - and the final of Bogota tomorrow, but that's it for this week.

Next week the WTA has an inaugural tournament in Florianopolis. Sounds an amazing place, worth looking up on Wikipedia. Could well get 24hr WTA, with tournaments in Kuala Lumpur, Florianopolis and Acapulco.

22 Feb

Petra Kvitova is singlehandedly saving tennis, slaying another pusher today, and with her mission to destroy the queen of the pushers tomorrow. Worrisome that she went for another walk in the market prematch today - someone thinks they know something, but let's hope whatever it is doesn't rear it's ugly head tomorrow. (Doesn't she brush up well?)

The coverage of WTA in the USA has been quite abysmal for years now, and today we had the stupid situation of no stream for the second semifinal in Memphis while there was a stream from a fixed webcam for a doubles match on the second court. This means we'll never know what occurred in Maggie's match. She had streaked into a 5-2 lead when there was an MTO. She then lost 5 in a row to lose the set and I fully expected a retirement, assuming the MTO must've been for her. But she played on and only just lost the second set 7-5.

21 Feb

Watched a superb match in Memphis between Maggie Rybarikova (above) and Kristen "Flipper" Flipkens. These two are the last of a dying breed of players who still play tennis "old stylee" for want of a better phrase. Don't think it's too far fetched to say that this might well have been the last time there is ever a match like it in the history of tennis, as they might never play each other again, and I don't think the youngsters are taught to play like this any more. So refreshing to watch after the endless pushing that's been dominating in Dubai.

Petra took a big walk in the market prematch, then went on to win, thank the lord. A SF lineup of Errani, Woz, A Rads and Vinci would've been one of the dullest ever. The burden of saving tennis from the tide of pushers rests squarely on Petra's shoulders. Pojd!

Didn't have any bets yesterday. None of the matches offered anything prematch and just could not back or lay anyone in play either. Managed a couple decent wins today and a few other smaller wins and losses.

19 Feb

Two horrific bets today, one based on sentiment, the other on lust! Hardly PROpunter behaviour, and packed things in after the second one lost.

I'll always tend to favour an attacking player over a pusher, and just cannot get it into my thick skull that the slow courts of today make this the age of the pusher. Errani beat Goerges today and didn't hit a single winner in the first two sets. As someone on WTAWorld said

"2 sets 0 winners is slightly more horrifying than 2 girls 1 cup. Please leave the top 10" .

I thought it might be time Arantxa Rus started realising her undoubted potential as I thought she'd played well in defeat in Auckland and Melbourne. But sadly today wasn't the day. 23 double faults in the thin Bogota air hardly helped, but I was so loathe to face facts and just could not bring myself to bale out as her opponent, the extremely mediocre Torro-Flor, had never, repeat never, won a main draw match before in her entire career! 

Oh well, draw a line under today's sad events.

18 Feb

Surprisingly early end to the day, as I'd expected Memphis to go on well into tomorrow. Shame, as it's the sort of day you just don't want to end, as almost everything went my way.

The one thing that did go against me was Urszula Radwanska, who was 1.01 to serve for the match. What the ****? Is she Urszula "Raonic" Radwanska? I'll lay that every time, so no regrets.

Alize Cornet had an awful attack of the serving yips during her match, one served going into the tramlines on the wrong side of the court! Never seen that before from anyone. But she surprisingly recovered from 3-6 down in the 2nd set tb to win, looking well out of breath, though she does that even at sea level. I can see myself obsessing with her breathing troubles all the way to her winning the title, a bit like Strasbourg last year when match after match she looked about to retire but somehow kept going, damn drama queen.

17 Feb

Fairly nondescript day, thanks to some idiot bets on the FA Cup screwing the PL for the day, plus a loss on Petrova/Srebotnik. Was nicely green on them but messed it up due to too much blind faith in Kata. She's one of my all-time fav players, great hands, singles career sadly cut short by injury, but still a force in the doubles. Did my dough enough times on her in singles and now continuing to do so in doubles!

Going to be a tough week with Dubai, Bogota and Memphis providing virtual nonstop tennis. Particularly interested to see Cornet at altitude in Bogota - she seems to have enough breathing difficulties at sea level! Off to bed for an 8.30 kickoff tomorrow.

16 Feb

After a day off yesterday (only missed out one good trading match between Serena and Petra) I annoyingly failed to get up in time for Morita's match this morning. After the afternoon kickoffs in Doha it didn't occur to me that Dubai would start really early in the morning!

Anyway, it was quite a good day, despite the disappointment of a sub-par display from Maria. Errors, poor body language, first ever loss in Doha. She's not playing Dubai next week so one has to question how serious she was taking this as her attendance was mandatory.

Not got the inclination to give detailed blow-by-blow as Dubai is starting early tomorrow and there's some potentially good matches. So early to bed for me.

14 Feb

I was going to title this entry "Screwed by Mandy Minella on Valentine's Day" as at one point it looked like she was going to beat Duque-Marino and leave me with a hole in the PL. But the RG Junior finalist and hometown player came good. At one point Mandy took exception to the crowd cheering a double fault and advanced towards them sarcastically  applauding, and I was fearful she'd get shot (it is Colombia after all) then Betfair would probably void the market.

A day for the pushers as the Mona bandwagon ran into the Danish Wall, the execrable Radwanska stifled Ivanovic, and Errani beat Dani (just). Oh for fast courts so the attacking players get better value for their shots. I fear the worst as tennis seems to be heading towards slower and slower courts, and interminable baseline rallies by players more concerned with just staying in the point rather than trying to win it. The slow nature of the courts makes the risk/reward equation too weighted in the pushers favour at the moment, and TV probably prefers these long rallies.

The QFs in Doha tomorrow present no opportunities for betting, so may take the day off depending what the Cali QF lineup looks like (they are still playing as I type, with Eugenie frittering away a 5-1 lead in the 3rd set).

13 Feb

 Not a bad day punting-wise but frustrating for viewing as several of the matches I wanted to watch were not on televised courts. Some chaotic matches, particularly Koukie vs Stephens, Koukie coming back from set and 1-4 down, then lead changing hands all over the shop in the 3rd set, then Koukie chucking away a 5-1 lead in the tie-break only to finally win it 7-5! Despite Koukie winning both her matches I've somehow managed to lose money on her #puzzled

Sad to see Simona having to retire with a lower back problem as she had looked in such good form a couple days ago. Also Maka retired, unwell after the Fed Cup weekend. Strange the bookies intel failed on that as the market sent her off favourite vs Petra. Just cannot understand the WTA and Fed Cup scheduling the weekend before such a big tournament.

The Betfair API died at 6pm so gave the later matches and all of Cali a miss. Had a small lay of Man Utd - was strange using the web interface again! How did we ever manage before the API?

12 Feb Mona

Today belonged to Mona Barthel who produced a stunning performance in the last match of the day. Even if you allow for Kerber not being at her best this was still a fine perf. It was good to see someone producing exciting attacking tennis given some of the dreary hours-long baseline pushing we seem to get so much of these days. I'd been a Mona sceptic last year, but not any more.

Why did the WTA and Fed Cup change the calendar and swap Paris and the Fed Cup ties? It seemed so sensible to have the Fed Cup the week after the Aus Open, with Paris afterwards. Now we have one of the biggest tournaments of the year, and a virtual mandatory, immediately after the Fed Cup. Hardly a surprise to see some players retirng and/or not at their best.

It was a case of one step forward, one back all day on the betting front until Mona not only lit up the court but lit up my PL! (There's still one match left in Cali later, but not sure if I'll have a dabble)

11 Feb Doha under way

Doha kicked off today with a Slam-strength field - of the top players only Na Li missing. Simona Halep played some awesome stuff here and Dubai last year, and she was in remarkable form today, brushing aside Olga "The Gov". I expect her to tear Ivanovic a new one. And what is that ridiculous excuse of a "skirt"? Nice one, Lacoste! Cornet wears the same, and I saw someone refer to it on Twitter as "stripper garb", not far wrong.

Had tuned in yesterday expecting to see LDL playing Tsurenko but instead was confronted by Torro-Flor playing Beygelzimer, a timely reminder of what the second day of Fed Cup can be like! An easy decision to keep the powder dry. There were some dramatic matches, Cepelova beating Bojo in over 3 hours, Sofia losing a set and 5-1 lead and looking out of it only for the unfortunate Ormaechea to collapse with cramps. Didn't see any of Sam vs Petra but by all accounts that was pretty tense chaotic stuff too. The atmosphere and tension made looking at today's matches pretty tame stuff.

Once again one disproportionate loss disfigured the PL, but unlike the one on Saturday I've no regrets over this. Many's the time Zheng has come back from the brink, and just as often I've watched A Rod discombobulate in jaw-dropping fashion. And it nearly happened today, with Zheng pulling it back from 0-5 to 3*-5 but just failing to hold serve. No way would A Rod have served it out had it gone 5*-4! So had no issues with holding on to the position to the bitter end.

9 Feb

Today was just the sort of silly day that I've been having all year and which I need to avoid, with one daft loss wiping out the day's profits. Held on to a position on Tsurenko too long rather than take the red, as she kept hinting at a comeback only to have it snuffed out by some daft ue or other. Still seething that she managed to lose to the mediocre journeywoman Soler Espinosa. Also, I'd made a really good all green trade on the LDL match, but didn't leave it alone and frittered away some of it with a couple later bad trades.

Grrrr. Still, at least it was only a fiver down on the day.

I'm not sure if any of this public self-admonishment is actually going to do any good - we shall see.

In their "wisdom", Betfair market ops added the FedCup tie outright markets to the in play coupon, just to make them more confusing and cluttered to read. What a crap company they are. They really do need some competition to sort them out.

8 Feb

Sheer boredom caused me to have a dabble on Bundesliga 2 this evening, and thankfully a nice little win. Don't scoff - they all add up!

Some of the Fed Cup ties are hit by injuries and withdrawals and all the tweets of players parties and general hilarity is making me a bit leery of the event as a whole. May tread cautiously, especially with Doha just a couple days away. Looks like a very good field for that.

Speaking of tweets, another change in the last 2 years has been the increased use of social media by the players. Many now have Twitter. There was also this gem posted on Youtube by @laurarobson5

The girls of summer

Was so sad to hear it officially confirmed that Agnes Szavay has retired. Who can forget that US hardcourt summer season of 2007 when she burst onto the scene reaching the New Haven final and US Open qf, following it up with 2 good tournaments on the Asian swing including an epic final win over JJ. And all the time wearing that iconic Marilyn Monroe style white dress.

She joins several other players who I loved to watch but who have faded from the scene - Alona Bondarenko and Chakkers to name two. Sad to say most of the current players seem to lack the same glamour and style. There may be hope, however, in the forms of Tsurenko, Bouchard, Vekic and Cepelova. Who knows when one of these up and coming players might suddenly experience a surge in form as Agnes did in 2007?

It leaves me searching for a new background photo for the blog. It's going to be hard to replace the current one! Good luck, Agi.

WTA Article

Two years is a long time in tennis

A lot has changed since I last blogged, and some things have surprisingly remained the same. Here is the top 15 from 2 years ago:

1 WOZNIACKI
2 CLIJSTERS
3 ZVONAREVA
4 SCHIAVONE
5 STOSUR
6 WILLIAMS, VENUS
7 LI, NA
8 JANKOVIC
9 AZARENKA
10 RADWANSKA
11 PEER
12 WILLIAMS, SERENA
13 SHARAPOVA
14 PAVLYUCHENKOVA
15 BARTOLI

Gone are Kim, Bepa, Fran, Venus, Shahar, JJ and Pav. Stosur and Na Li still mid table, and both winning their maiden Slam. In have come Errani, Kerber, Kvitova, Petrova (!), Kirilenko, Ivanovic and Cibulkova. There's been a fair bit of churning of positions among the others. But a turnover of under 50% maybe isn't that remarkable.

The most remarkable thing to me of the last 2 years was Maria "cow on ice" Sharapova winning RG. And, of course, the astounding Golden Set by Shvedova over Errani at Wimbledon. That was so unbelievable that I still don't think many really appreciate just how silly it was.

Focus

Hello, blogosphere.

It's been about 2 years since I last blogged, and last felt the need so to do. But I've found myself really struggling with focus since the start of the year and am resuming the blog in the hope that daily reporting will help to find that zone.

It's actually a week with very little on. There's no women's tennis until the Fed Cup on Saturday, and I don't propose to have any bets on other sports in the meantime. So as I have the time I thought I'd resurrect the blog.

I should change the photo of the lovely Agnes Szavay as sadly I don't think we'll be seeing her on the tennis court again. She reappeared briefly last summer in order to compete in the Olympics, but I think her back problems spell the end. However I'll leave the photo up until there's official confirmation.

Might as well start with a winning PL, and had a nice win on the Superbowl last night!