Rafa's last chance?

Rafa Benitez, Liverpool manager, that is. Surely a poor result at Stoke today will be curtains for him? Even though half his 1st choice team is out crocked or suspended his neck must be on the block today.

There's a pause in the tennis until Sunday midnight UK time, so thoughts turn elsewhere. But just to wrap up, had a couple small bets on the AO qualifiers to check everything was working and to get used to the Slam sb which is so much faster than the Protennis shit that we have to follow for the WTA tournaments. Also backed Abond after her good showing in the semis and she didn't disappoint, for once!The main interest today is the NFL Divisional round. Here's an excellent site for NFL analysis. Ariz must be a back at 3.7 in a tossup game. Having said that, I'm cooling a bit on Ariz because they're coming off such a huge win which must've drained them emotionally as much as physically and mentally. But NO were really poor at the tailend of the season so I'm still going in on Ariz, but not as big as originally planned, and will look to cover the stake at some point in running.

Dodging bullets

Was looking at a loss on the footie yesterday as the favs finally trotted up in the Africa Cup of Nations. Has been a layers dream till then. Luckily Villa came to the rescue later!Then dodged a couple of bullets on the WTA. Despite all the stats about the favs so far this season I thought all 3 dogs had a chance today.Thought Peer was worth a lay as she'd only had 14 hrs rest since her 3hr marathon semi, but when there wasn't a feed and the sb was frozen decided to get out and go to bed. Lucky lucky lucky, as it looks like it was a 1.01 train to Peer. How fit must she be to play again so soon and destroy Errani. ABond and fighting comebacks aren't usually associated but she staged one to win in 3 over AMG, who you'd normally think of as the more solid of the two. Waited too long hoping AMG would get going again and had to take a loss despite having been green from when AMG won the first set. Very annoying when that happens! But finally Deme landed one for the dogs.

Only the Hobart final left this week before Melbourne starts on Sunday night UK time, though Betfair might offer markets on the final round of qualifying. In the meantime the NFL takes centre stage again - I'm very keen on Ariz and Dallas both at tasty odds.

Perchance to sleep

With apologies to the Bard!

It's very confusing at the moment with virtually 24hrs sports betting going on. Where does one day end and the other begin?
Stupidly got involved with the Ind vs Sri L cricket whilst waiting for the Deme vs Safina match to start, but after the tennis finished I really could not stay awake any more and had to green out and go to bed! A few bets on the Africa Cup of Nations and the evening's footie followed, with a modest profit on the day. Rather annoyed I didn't lay Pool, as when a team/player is going through a bad patch things will just keep happening, and as sports bettors we should be aware of this and lay the **** out of them!2 out of the 6 favs lost last night, Dulko and Zheng. Was surprised at the ease with which Deme despatched the lunatic Azarenka. Serena managed to escape from being a set and 5-2 down! Stupidly I missed trading out to the max, as I had my greening up lay at 1.05 and it never got matched, the lowest Rezai went was 1.08 I think. And once Serena's comeback started her price crashed very quickly. But still, a nice little win laying her from the start.

Not much action tonight as we reach the tail end of the week. Funny rhythm to tennis betting, with a lot of matches early in the week, reducing very quickly once you get to the semis and finals. The temptation to increase the stakes is mighty strong!

An expensive bacon sarnie

Favs won 5/8 last night, with Aleks Woz, Penne and KBond perishing. Deme looked in good form, as did Serena. The Aus Open could be a cracker!

Backers may well be enraged at the way Penne tamely folded (to be polite!) but bettors have to be realistic about these things and factor it into their prematch evaluations. She'd got to the final in Auckland last week, it's very early in the season to be playing so many matches, and Melbourne starts in a few days time. So why didn't she tank vs Sam? Well let's see - that was centre court, and covered live on tv. Get real, people.

Had a few small bets on the footie during the evening and ended up level - not worth making a screenshot.

Went and made a bacon sarnie during a rain break in the AWoz - Flipkens match, with the 1st set still in the balance. Came back as the lines judges were taking their seats and thought yum got time for another. But by the time I got back Flipkens had wrapped up the 1st set and was marching off on a 1.01 train to win the match, leaving my position on A Woz decidedly unhealthy! Had to take a red on that. A very expensive bacon sarnie that one.

A loss like that on the 1st match of the day presents a real mental challenge not to go chasing! Luckily I managed to resist, and slowly recouped the loss, eventually ending up with a nice profit on the night.

Favs back on track

After yesterday's blip, favs trotted up in 10/11 matches yesterday, with one match having no clear fav. The only losing fav was Kuzzy. Just mull that over for a bit - ten out of eleven favs won! Punters on most other sports would kill for a hit rate like that.

Paszek played someof the worse tennis I think I've ever seen, even allowing for the very windy conditions! Many of her serves were bouncing before the net. How she took Dulko to a 3rd set tb is a mystery. Had a few small punts on the footie, then over to Betdaq as Betfair was down overnight. I foolishly put some bets on without waiting to see how liquidity in running would be, and got a shock when there was none except for the main court match in Sydney. Luckily I got out unscathed, but it was horrible watching the match scores powerless to do anything! Shows how used to being able to bet in running we've become.It's a real shame Betdaq doesn't provide any competition for Betfair. Thankfully, Betfair haven't as yet abused their monopoly position too badly, but the day may well arrive when they do.

Revenge of the dogs

A mere 13/20 favs won, with Vinci, Czink, Oudin, Shvedova, CWoz, JJ and Petrova all losing. Some real shockers in that lot. Not even sure they can use the week before a Slam as an excuse, either. JJ probably has the best excuse as it was her 1st match of the year, but all the others have had a match or 3, either tournaments or exhos.Only had a few small bets on the WTA as once again the NFL playoffs took centre stage, plus had a few small bets on the footie and the Chennai ATP final. Both NFL bets on the dogs with a view to trade turned out to be on the right side as both jumped out to very early 17-0 leads so I could green out.

NFL playoffs

The NFL playoff games were the main focus of attention and only had a couple bets on the WTA at halftime of the Dallas game.Of the 9 1r matches, only 1 fav lost (I think - not sure of some of the SP's in Hobart). Safarova retired with a pec strain. This makes 57/69 winning favs since the start of the season, a strike rate of 82%!
Somehow I managed to back the one losing fav. Doh. So a small loss on the tennis, and the first overall red day of the year.