Snow, sleep, and the first brain fart of the year

What a crazy 24 hours!

Due to the very cold spell in the UK I was stuck at home yesterday and, out of boredom, had a punt on the ATP - something I don't usually do. Somehow I managed a nice win on Davydenko without ever risking too much, just swapping green from side to side. The market is so in love with Federer that the slightest hint of a recovery and it drops like a whore's knickers!

I then gave most of it back on the footie in the evening. That was particularly annoying, as a lay of WBA was so obvious on the form, yet I decided to back the draw and cover the home win as I figured those who know far more about footie than me had set the odds at evens for a reason. Hmmmmm. Then failed to red out when they went 0-1 down thinking they'd equalise, only to be sunk without trace by the 2 more 2nd half goals in quick succession.However, that's not the brain fart of the title - that's yet to come!

Had a quick nap but got up an hour too early for Auckland and passed the time with a little bet on Stepanek which surprisingly came in. Then a nice little win on Wickmayer in Auckland. Impressed how quickly she got over her early 2nd set wobble - last year those wobbles lasted much longer, often resulting in a 3 setter. Very pleased for her, as it's some compensation for her having had to miss Bali over the ridiculous alleged drug-taking cafuffle.

What with the tennis overnight in Aus and NZ, sleep patterns are all over the shop right now and I wasn't at all sleepy after that. Saw Roddick had dropped the first set vs Berdych. Now from what very little I do know about ATP, Berdych is really not one to be trusted so decided to have a little dabble on Roddick at nice odds.

Quite how I managed to get up again in time for Henin vs Clijsters I really don't know. But there I was happily sitting on a small bet on Clijsters when she suddenly decided to leave the court midway through the 2nd set! Now Clijsters and finals has always been a dodgy proposition and no reason a year off would make any difference, so I went to switch, only to misclick and lump on ten times as much as I'd intended on Henin! I blame lack of sleep. Was never going to recover from that and ended up having to take a big red, though luckily it wasn't more than preceding profits. So what should've been a good day's profits went up in smoke!

Clean sweep for the favs

All 4 favs won last night, all relatively comfortably.

Despite that managed to make a small loss! Backed the 2 favs in Auckland but laid the 2 in Brisbane as thought both Henin and Clijsters would trade higher - they had both dropped sets the prev round to similar strength opponents. But I overstaked the lays and left it too long before redding out trying to give both as long as possible to have their blips. Henin never looked in any danger. Clijsters did have a mini-blip in the 1st set which I ignored hoping for a bigger one in the 2nd, but Petkovic couldn't sustain her level and fell away rather tamely as Clijsters raised hers. That ate up all the profits from the 2 wins.

Had a win on the BCS bowl so overall a small green day. Can't complain about that!

Favs keep piling in

7/8 favs won last night, continuing the trend since the start of the season. Only Hantuchova lost, to Petkovic.

I stayed out of all the matches as this run of favs has spooked me. Although each match is a discrete event, there is a very strong long term average that favs win between 70-75% of all matches, so there will very likely be a run of losing favs at some point to correct this short-term trend. So it makes me doubly uncertain about backing the favs, but I didn't really fancy any of the outsiders strongly enough to get involved. As it turned out, 3 of the favs in Auckland had comfy straight sets wins, but all of the favs in Brisbane dropped a set.

It was rather chastening to see the 2 players whose perfs I'd noted the day before both lost, and the player the value of whose win I'd questioned won! The followers of this blog (if there are any?) would seem to be better off taking the opposite view!

Betting with your dick

The run of favs continues, with 9/11 winning and one match with no clear fav. The two losing favs were Razzano losing to golden oldie Date Krumm, and Vesnina lost surprisingly easily to Cornetto.

Perfs of note : Cib played the best I've seen her play for some time to beat Rezai. Rezai had ended 09 on a high note winning Bali and didn't look far off that pace today, so a noteworthy win. Daniela looked in good form too, though Agnes did rather give up in the 2nd set. Maggi Rybarikova lost surprisingly easily to Peer - too bad to be true, that scoreline, especially after her win over AMG. A bad day at the office? Or something wrong? Time will tell, but best avoided for now.

A shockingly uneven perf by me on the markets. Tried to play too many of them, overstaked some matches, just plain and simple called some wrong, and seemed to spend all day cutting losses. Just another day at the office! Am most annoyed that I deserted Cornetto who is one of my favs and often underestimated, but she had played quite poorly in her last match whereas Vesnina had played quite well. Plus committed the cardinal sin of betting with my dick, overstaking badly on Agnes Szavay to beat Daniela. No way was it worth as big a bet as I placed. Ah well. But what red blooded male can blame me?
Still, another green day after all said and done.

Free munney

It's easy to make money at the moment as the favs are trotting up, unless you're a layer of course! Of the 14 matches played last night favs won 13/14. Only Na Li lost to Kaia Kanepi.

Was pleasing to see Kanepi back to something like her true form. She had an injury in Madrid last year and never really recovered her form after that, but she's shown herself capable of playing some unstoppable tennis at times. I particularly remember her match last year in Dubai vs JJ.

Vesnina is a good example how you have to be constantly rethinking your approach to each player. For the 1st half of last year she habitually lost the 1st set easily only to roar back and win the match, often against some top opponents. But this changed during the 2nd part of last year and now she tends to win the 1st set then goes off the boil. Keeps you on your toes!

Idiot me managed to spaff away a large chunk of profits on laying the Serb monster. She'd played so badly vs Dokic and Timea is such a solid fighter that I thought it worth going for a big one. But sadly the hated one managed to pull through, and I failed to green up when I had the chance.

But a green day, plus a bit on the US College footie as it was something to watch last night while the tennis was on.

Henin returns

All eyes on Brisbane for the return of Justine Henin who won a tough 1st match vs Nadia Petrova.

15 matches played, 12 favs won. Losing favs were Peng (to Szavay), Chakkers (to Date Krumm) and Kleybanova (to Pav).

Hadn't planned to get involved as it's still 1r so 1st matches of the year for most of the girls. But was pleasantly surprised to find streams for both Auckland and Brisbane available, so ended up having a few bets as was happy to do so with visual.
Made a right mess of a few, but had a nice win on Szavay that saved the day. Particularly annoyed about the Kleybanova loss as I didn't notice she came back to win the 2nd set and I could've got out, but I was busy watching the Henin match. Doh! Also having laid Vinci when she was 5-1 up I didn't green up when I had the chance and was caught out by a surprisingly rapid collapse by Errani. And I let my hatred of the fist-pumping Serb monster affect my judgement. Also irritated I wasn't on Sesil : 17th rule of WTA betting - always seriously consider backing a player in 1r who has played qualies vs a player who hasn't.

Still, not a bad 1st day

A slow start

Rain affected the first day's play in Brisbane with some of the matches being held over to tomorrow. Of the 6 matches that were completed, favs won 3. Losing favs were Bammer, Benesova and Govortsova.

No bets for me as we've no idea what shape any of the girls are in after their winter break.

Auckland kicks off as well later tonight Europe time.